Waterford, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

371
FXUS63 KDTX 191829
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
229 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer conditions Friday, with a chance of rain showers.

- Above average temperatures will persist into the weekend.

- Rain chances on Sunday with a rain snow mix possible in the Thumb.

- No indications for an arctic air outbreak during the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Record breaking high amplitude ridge over the western United States
will result in a northwest flow regime for the Great Lakes region
Friday and this weekend. Generally looking at minor forecast
concerns over the coming days with the most pertinent of challenges
being the swings in the temperature forecast locally with the
baroclinic zone wavering in vicinity of Southeast Michigan.

Quiet weather with a few breaks in the clouds early this evening as
synoptic scale subsidence and surface high pressure pushes through
the area. Upper level jet exit region spreads into the northern
Great Lakes late tonight opening the door to midlevel warm
advection. Favorable synoptic lift in combination with embedded
shortwave energy will support a Clipper/area of surface low pressure
tracking from the Straits at 12Z Fri to Toronto by 18Z. Warm
midlevel air mass, 900mb temperatures of +12-13C, pushes across
southern portions of the area supports an all rain forecast. Dry air
and subsaturation in the lowest 9.0 kft agl yields lower confidence
in rainfall amounts, less than a tenth. The forecast PoPs range from
60% likelies in the Thumb to 20 percent for much of Metro Detroit.
Better support for rainfall exists across Ontario and perhaps the
eastern cwa for a time between 12-18Z Friday. Highs are tricky with
the surface cold front along the Irish Hills axis at 18z pushing
southward through Metro Detroit during the afternoon.

The surface front is forecasted to backdoor southward clearing the
region into portions of Iowa and Illinois Friday night. Big question
is then what temperatures can moderate to on Saturday especially
with expected cloud cover. Latest guidance was a little cooler for
Saturday highs; but additional downward adjustments are likely needed
especially locations adjacent to the Lakes.

Deep midlevel trough and change in orientation to upper level jet
axis is expected to result in a frontal wave pushing through Lower
Michigan Sunday. There is a converging of global model solutions for
a frontal timing Sunday midday/afternoon. Very warm midlevel
temperatures are again expected with 850mb temperatures of +16 or
+17C. Post front precipitation may changeover to snow for a time but
warm ground will likely limit much of impactful accumulation outside
of the Thumb. PoPS for Sunday currently reside in the high chance,
40-55 percent range.

A large area of stable high pressure is anticipated for the
beginning of the next work week.  Cold nighttime temperatures are
expected to warm into the 40s with full sunshine.

&&

.MARINE...

A weak ridge of high pressure takes brief residence through late
today as a frontal boundary washes out overhead. Northwest wind
becomes light this evening before organizing out of the southeast
early Friday morning in response to a clipper system, reaching a
peak around 15 to 20 kt. This system tracks across northern Lake
Huron Friday morning, bringing a quick round of rain and snow
overnight into the first half of Friday. Winds shift to north and
northwest in its wake at around 10 to 15 kt, then weaken into
Saturday as high pressure builds back in. A strong cold front sinks
across the region on Sunday with gusty northeast wind of 20 to 30 kt
developing behind it. Probability for gales remains low, but Small
Craft Advisories will likely be needed across southern Lake Huron
due to wave heights around or above 4 feet. Expansive high pressure
builds in behind the front on Monday, then the next cold front is
expected on Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......TF


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.